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Understanding technological growth – how fast different technologies are adopted and to what extent – can help us understand how newer technologies may grow. The growth trajectories that technologies have taken in the past differ; while some have grown quickly, others have grown slowly. Meeting the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement will require growth of technologies to reduce emissions, so understanding potential pathways for such growth is crucial.

To study the growth of different technologies, GENIE team members have created the Historical Adoption of TeCHnology (HATCH) database with time series data on over 200 technologies. The database also includes characteristics of each technology, such as the level of technological complexity and technological lifetime. The HATCH database spans a wide array of technologies across different regional scales and time periods. This includes, for example, data on small, digital technologies such as cell phones as well as large, industrial technologies such as railroads. The combination of time series data, which allows for exploration of technology growth, with a dataset on the characteristics of each technology allows for further exploration about enablers of fast technological growth.

Figure 2 shows the development of fertilizer production in the United States. More technology indicators can be explored in this interactive Scenario Explorer workspace .

As we look forward in time to consider options to meet temperature goals, it is informative to look to past historical technological growth to understand the dynamics and drivers of technological growth in the past. One type of analysis is connecting a historical analogue technology to a more novel technology. Because many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods are at an early stage of development (some small-scale operations exist for technologies like direct air capture and carbon sequestration, for example), studying the growth of a historical analogue technology can provide insight into feasible future pathways for growth of such CDR methods.

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